Is it the year to go for it?

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Is it the year to go for it?

Postby PensFan101 on Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:10 pm

In light of the LaFreniere trade, and so as to not derail the thread on him, I figure I'd take Watcher's comment about rumours it may not be our year in management's eyes, and break down our roster as it could look for next season.

Let's say for the sake of discussion, that the rumours are true and management doesn't see this as an all in year for the team.

Here's a look at the roster and who would be back or leaving:

Goalies:
Guzda (01) - back, likely team starter, finally an appropriate age to have 35-40 starts
LaFreniere (98) - let's be optimistic and say he works out. 1 of 3 Overagers
2/2

Defence:
Beamish (00) - decent young D but unknown whether he'll develop into a core player right now
Borque (98) - just drafted last season, and given that he's not blowing anyone away, 2nd OA
Cameron (98) - depth defender now, hard to imagine he warrants an OA spot
Chibrikov (01) - lots of promise to grow, will be a regular next season
Durzi (98) - before this season seemed a surefire OA candidate. Now? Likely gone.
Friend (97) - Aged out.
Lyle (99) - If Durzi is gone he and Phillips are our top pairing
Phillips (99) - Top pairing D.
5/8 back for sure, 6/8 if Durzi is returned.

Forwards:
Campbell (98) - 30 point pace this year, bubble OA candidate
Doherty (00) - Likely move into the Top 9 next season.
Dudas (00) - Will centre either 1st or 2nd line depending on Hancock.
Gadjovich (98) - 100% turned pro next season.
Daylon Groulx (00) - Has some offensive upside.
Hancock (98) - Like Durzi, a wildcard on coming back. I would lean towards 3rd OA.
Lyszczarczyk (98) - If Hancock isn't back, he could be our OA candidate, but also has question marks given his inconsistency this season. His citizenship means Europe always an option.
Moro (00) - Plenty of upside and could be a solid secondary scorer next season.
Roberts (99) - Always hoping for more from Roberts, but a solid Top 9 player if nothing else.
Russell (01) - Assuming he doesn't get moved to go for it, part of our Top 9 next season. First rounders are always wildcards until next fall hits.
Struthers (99) - Still feels like he's scratching the surface, but a surefire 2nd line centre.
Sushko (99) - Top line scorer for next season.
Suzuki (99) - Always a risk he makes the NHL, but Vegas looks strong enough that I would be shocked by him sticking. It's NHL or OHL for him next season.
Szypula (97) - aged out.
Vertiy (98) - Guy is already on the OHL fringes this season, no way he's back as an OA.

At least 9/15 of these guys will be back. Ten if Suzuki comes back. Eleven if the overage situation played out where either Lazer or Campbell and Hancock are on the roster together.

When I'm looking at it, I'm starting to see why management might want to be more conservative. It seems so risky, so counter-intuitive when this group this season is so insanely talented. However, standing pat (which I think is the worst option) or selling off (the least palatable option for the fans), has its upside. It would add another year worth of picks to gain value, meaning our cupboards are slightly more full.

The team though is arguably losing fewer pieces than last season, and fewer key pieces at that. Suzuki could make the NHL but it's tough for anyone at 19. Hancock and Durzi are both likely to be drafted (Durzi I would say is a lock), but that does not tie them to the AHL/ECHL, and there are points to be made that both are returned.

The only key player that is 100% not returning is Gadjovich (and Friend, but his skillset is a lot easier to come by than Gadjo). Gadjovich is literally the only irreplaceable piece in this lineup, and everyone there is a year older and a year better.

From a market standpoint, it would also open up the possibility that a DiPietro is available or more easily moveable as a 19 year old. Suzuki and Phillips are the real core of this team and I think Dale envisioned going for it with them in their primes.

Using just the roster I've glanced over, with no other moves made, here is what it could look like in an almost worst case scenario (assuming Suzuki is 100% back, Durzi/Hancock both go pro):

LaFreniere (OA)
Guzda

Phillips - Lyle
Bourque (OA) - Beamish
Chibrikov

Sushko - Dudas - Suzuki
Groulx - Struthers - Lazer (OA)
Moro - Russell - Roberts
Doherty

If Durzi and/or Hancock get returned, move Lazer on, and find another goalie to platoon with Guzda. Add a first round pick somewhere in the lineup plus a new import, and there aren't many holes on this team either.

And to be honest, this team doesn't look that much different than this year's, minus Gadjovich. A little thin on D.

This post is already going way too long, and by no means am I advocating selling this season, I still think this team can do something. However, looking at the roster and what will likely happen next season, there's a case to be made. Might selling off Gadjovich and Dale maybe doing his classic move and going after another 99 he likes improve the team for the long term? Food for thought.
Last edited by PensFan101 on Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby hockeyhockeyhockey on Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:20 pm

You forgot Russell in your projected lineup
your Owen Sound Attack...

2011 OHL Champions
2011 Western Conference Champions
2011 Mid-West Division Regular Season Champions
2011 OHL Memorial Cup Participant
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby PensFan101 on Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:42 pm

hockeyhockeyhockey wrote:You forgot Russell in your projected lineup


Woops! Thanks for catching that - corrected.

For a worst case scenario lineup, the depth at centre is still really strong. If Hancock returns, that's going to be as good a four as anyone in the West in all likelyhood.
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby Annan_Man on Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:41 pm

The second line of your projected lineup is IMO weaker than this years (even forecasting out a year of growth and development). Either these players would have to show a great up side in the second half of this season , or come out of camp on fire to warrant them being top 6 in my mind. Otherwise there would need to be some trades done to solidify the top 6. IMO Durzi is back next year which is a bonus. He should sign as a free agent somewhere but I would bet he's back. I don't think Suzuki is back next year, he could make Vegas but more likely will be in the AHL. You are right that DiPetrio will be cheaper next year at 19 .
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby cubby01 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:24 pm

I think Nick is 19 next year so he is either NHL or OHL
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby attackisback on Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:05 pm

How did having an OA goalie work out this year.
The kid hasn’t played a game and he’s already in next year? He must be good
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby hllywd99 on Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:59 pm

IMHO this year is a huge bust and I think we might see some tweaking at the deadline.
Hopefully DD has learned a lesson in regards to bargain basement goaltending.
........."FRACKEN A BABY! FRACKEN A!".............

......Andrew Shaw @ 11:09 pm 06/24/2013.......

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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby CHL Watcher on Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:09 pm

This year is only the year to go for it if the team can get .900 or more in net.

To be kind....the jury is still out on that.

It may be the first time I've seen a team this talent laden ....with a powerplay and all kinds of scoring to boot...with 20 to 40 minutes of excellent play every game....be this bad. I'm fairly certain I've never seen it here....completely certain. I would take this team again....unchanged...with a couple of Mulligans. There are a couple of other, supposedly good, teams floundering, too. Like I say.....there are about 12 too few OHL calibre goaltenders this year. Even DiPietro has looked human.

The two most important positions on any team are the coach and the goaltender....followed by the overagers and imports (Fergus, Luchuk, Svetchnikov and Liponov....for example).....and the 19 year old core. There are a couple of weak points in those aspects of the mix for the Attack....definitely.

In a nutshell....if they cannot show dominance before Jan 10 (they can't) they will have to trade Gadjovich....and a couple more.

DD would be playing house league style if he didn't. It's a cryin' shame....but it's the price you pay for not getting it right this time.
Last edited by CHL Watcher on Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby CHL Watcher on Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:18 pm

hllywd99 wrote:IMHO this year is a huge bust and I think we might see some tweaking at the deadline.
Hopefully DD has learned a lesson in regards to bargain basement goaltending.



You see that yet?
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby Floger on Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:26 am

Do you really think we can compete with SSM and Sarnia even with a 900 goalie?? If DD sold the farm to upgrade to GO for it and we lost in the second round would it have been worth it???? We have a very good team and if we had have had MM in net starting back in Sept upgrading would have been a no brainer. IMHO
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby CHL Watcher on Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:13 pm

I don't "think" it.

I know it.

Could they win it all?

I don't know that.

Should you fold like a cheap tent in July or August, roll over and show everyone your belly?

I don't "think" so.


What a fearful and submissive bunch we have here.
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby stevey on Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:07 am

Floger wrote:Do you really think we can compete with SSM and Sarnia even with a 900 goalie?? If DD sold the farm to upgrade to GO for it and we lost in the second round would it have been worth it???? We have a very good team and if we had have had MM in net starting back in Sept upgrading would have been a no brainer. IMHO


It doesn't matter what any of us think SSM thought we could hence the reluctance to trade Raymakkers here.
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby cubby01 on Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:01 pm

Here is the problem, with any luck at all they could have got all four points this weekend. The new goalie was fine, but the PP and scoring vanished. Once everyone gets back, with more steady work in net, the Attack can play with anyone. But...... do they have the horses to beat the Soo or Sting in the first round. Maybe not. Therefore, is a sell off of some sort in the cards? Maybe get some assets so they can try again next year? The core will be there if they do not panic and sell the farm this year. Tough spot to be in for management.
One other thing, is it not kind of funny that the Soo would not trade a goalie to the Attack because they were afraid of them, so instead trade the guy to the Knights. That might come back and bite them at some point.
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby attackisback on Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:25 pm

Maybe he didn’t want to come here and London enticed him?
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Re: Is it the year to go for it?

Postby Noofgoof on Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:29 am

In my opinion you guys are crazy to want to sell... I think with steady goaltending this team is very close. I think you add an OA whether that is a guy like james last year who is good in the face off dot and can put up points or a dman. I also think you could still upgrade Syzpula although he's been better of late. But other then that this team is playing better D and letting less goals in at least so far with OLI the GOALIE in net. If we can find another scoring dman it would help also but scoring isn't what the team has lacked all season . I totally see things turning around and I wouldn't let the Sault's record scare us.. so what they have had a good first half. Sarnia starated great also but have shown some major cracks in the armour. I'm not scared of them I have confidence in our team. Gills teams historically have better second halfs and I think that will hold true.. live for now not tomorrow. We can right this ship and our division isn't running away with things so we can make up ground quick.
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